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Dimview09

Do you believe we are in or nearing Peak Oil?

Soonvapor:

I doubt it.
There are so many unexplored areas.

Dimview09:

Agreed, and some say oil is regenerative.

FireMadeFlesh:

No, but I do think that the oil producing countries are producing less and less thanks to their own greed. They're fleecing the world economy.

Dimview09:

You maybe right. I don't either some say oil is regenerative

FireMadeFlesh:

It could be, I have heard that theory. But of course it has to be quashed by those 'don't encourage oil use' greenies.

Globally Interested:

The current demand is nearing the peak of the estimated capacity. To extend the peak, new oil must be found faster then the demand increases.

Ze'_Enigma of Dissidence..!!!:

New sources of oil are being discovered. . The Brazilian government says huge new oil reserves discovered off its coast could turn the country into one of the biggest oil producers in the world. America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant.

The real problem is that oil companies are intentionally withholding supplies of gasoline by running refineries at 85% of capacity so that they can make huge profits. It is the oil companies who tell us we are running out of oil and it's the speculators who are driving up profits. Shouldn't we ask: Why should traders in Dubai, the financial center of the oil rich middle east, be trading in futures contracts for Texas crude oil?

Globally Interested:

It is not the refineries that are making the money. Take a look at the Valero chart (symbol VLO). Even Exxon is planning to sell their retail stations. The price of oil has been going up faster than the refineries can pass it through. The crack spread is killing them.


Our refineries are over 30years old and in continual need of repair. 85% capacity for these antiquities is pretty good. The problem is the price of the oil, not the refined product.


Also, our refineries are designed to refine light sweet crude. The sour heavy must be sent to other countries, like India, to be refined.

In the long run, what is needed is renewable energy sources.

Ze'_Enigma of Dissidence..!!!:

Dunrunnin
I was passing by and noted your comment. I disagree with your perceptions of refining costs and capacity. Most refineries have been upgraded in capacity. Many companies own refineries outside the US. If you want to get a really true look at the refinery costs, types of oils processed, accounting disagreements,and other facts not normal made public I suggest you read Valero's K-10 report filed with the SEC:
http://www.valero.com/NR/rdonlyres/9E7FCC7C-E429-4E80-BCC4-B2C2F03842F​6/0/200710K.pdf

For example on types of oil processed, Valero explains:
" In 2007, sour crude oils, acidic sweet crude oils, and resid represented 57% of our throughput volumes ...Our ability to process significant amounts of sour crude oils enhances our competitive position in the industry relative to refiners that process primarily sweet crude oils because sour crude oils typically can be purchased at prices below sweet crude oils.

Globally Interested:

Yes, Valero is capable of refining sour crude. Others also have that capability, but not enough. We still must ship much of our sour to foreign countries. The fact remains that even at 100% capacity we are unable to fill the domestic demand for gasoline.

Valero stock has dropped about 40% sine the beginning of the year. First quarter earnings were 48 cents/share. Fourth quarter of 2007 were $1.02/share. They appear to get a better crack spread during the heating oil season.

While the refinery capacities have been upgraded, the core is still over 30 years old and still requires extensive maintenance and repairs. Utilization dropping below 90% has been rather common over the past few years. Also, the environmental standards for the refined products have become stricter over the years.
I invest in oil, oil field services and equipment, and exploration and drilling. I have no interest in oil or its products after it reaches the refiners. Even Exxon is starteing to sell their retail stations.

Ed:

Do you mean peak oil prices or peak oil production. I think we are in a bubble and that prices will eventually fall a little. There's lots of room for growth in production.

Dimview09:

Peak Oil production, I didn't know of a peak oil price concept. Something new from congress, wouldn't put it past them.

Ze'_Enigma of Dissidence..!!!:

In 1977, when the Department of Energy began keeping detailed records of US proved crude oil reserves, the US had 31.7 billion barrels of proved reserves. Proved reserves from Texas, Alaska and California oil fields represented more two-thirds of the total US reserves. At that time, exploration of offshore oil fields in Gulf of Mexico and off the California coast was just starting. By 2006, as noted in the table below, the total US proved reserves of crude oil dropped in all major sources, except for new offshore fields reserves.
(Billion barrels). 1977....2006
Total US ............31.2......21.0
Alaska .................8.4........3.9
Texas ..................9.7........4.9
California ............4.7........3.4
Off Shore .............0.4........4.1
Other States .........8.2........4.7
Over that period new old field discoveries added 6.9 billion barrels of reserves, of which 4.3 billion barrels are new fields in discovered in the Off Show fields. From this chart you one can understand why oil companies are interested in developing Anwar (Alaska) and off the coasts of states bordering the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Our reserves actually peaked in 1970 at 39 billion barrels and depleted at an average annual rate of a half billion barrels a year.

All of this information has been developed from the following source.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html

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